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House Financial Services chair on Kalshi
If Sean Casten is the first Chair of House Financial Services for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Maxine Waters be Chair of House Financial Services? · Maxine Waters | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,577 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will French Hill be Chair of House Financial Services? · French Hill | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,434 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sean Casten be Chair of House Financial Services? · Sean Casten | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,858 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Foster be Chair of House Financial Services? · Bill Foster | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,695 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brad Sherman be Chair of House Financial Services? · Brad Sherman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 289 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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