Markets › Kalshi › Elections
House Freedom Caucus Chair (120th Congress) on Kalshi
If Keith Self wins the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: House Freedom Caucus.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keith Self win the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Keith Self | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Burlison win the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Eric Burlison | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clay Higgins win the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Clay Higgins | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Gill win the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Brandon Gill | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Clyde win the House Freedom Caucus Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Andrew Clyde | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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