Markets › Kalshi › Politics
House votes on impeaching Pete Hegseth on Kalshi
If the number of Representatives voting Yea on adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth before Jan 3, 2027 is above 250, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 220 Yea votes in the House? · Above 220 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,057 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 250 Yea votes in the House? · Above 250 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,313 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 225 Yea votes in the House? · Above 225 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 907 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 215 Yea votes in the House? · Above 215 | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 832 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 230 Yea votes in the House? · Above 230 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 594 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 240 Yea votes in the House? · Above 240 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 373 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 210 Yea votes in the House? · Above 210 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 127 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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