Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Heavenly Mountain Resort Opening on Kalshi
If Heavenly Mountain Resort conducts Seasonal Opening Operations in the 26/27 winter season before Nov 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Heavenly Mountain Resort Snow & Weather Report.
Market says (typical open contract)
89%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
22% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Nov 22, 2026? · Before Nov 22, 2026 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 3,528 | Nov 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Dec 20, 2026? · Before Dec 20, 2026 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 484 | Dec 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Nov 29, 2026? · Before Nov 29, 2026 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 36 | Nov 29, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2 | Dec 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Dec 6, 2026? · Before Dec 6, 2026 | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 2 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.