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House Armed Services ranking member on Kalshi
If Trent Kelly is the first Ranking Member of House Armed Services for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Clerk of the House of Representatives , the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trent Kelly be Ranking Member of House Armed Services? · Trent Kelly | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ronny Jackson be Ranking Member of House Armed Services? · Ronny Jackson | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Rogers be Ranking Member of House Armed Services? · Mike Rogers | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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