What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Natalie Harp announces she's leaving the White House? on Kalshi

If Natalie Harp leaves (or announces she will leave) as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, ABC, BBC News, White House, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, official government records and registries, ABC News Australia, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

22% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.12	11.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	1,156	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	706	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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