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Guayaquil mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Susana Santistevan wins the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Electoral Council of Ecuador.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Susana Santistevan win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Susana Santistevan | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pedro Medina win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Pedro Medina | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mónica Luzárraga win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Mónica Luzárraga | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Héctor Baldeón win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Héctor Baldeón | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fiorella Ycaza win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Fiorella Ycaza | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Francisco Macio win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Francisco Macio | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cynthia Viteri win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Cynthia Viteri | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrés Roche win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Andrés Roche | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Antonio García win the 2026 Guayaquil mayoral election? · Antonio García | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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