Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Guatemala City mayoral election on Kalshi
If Samuel Pérez wins the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Tribunal Supremo Electoral.
Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.83 | 20.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Pérez win the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election? · Samuel Pérez | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jun 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ricardo Quiñónez win the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election? · Ricardo Quiñónez | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jun 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Roberto González win the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election? · Roberto González | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jun 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ninotchka Matute win the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election? · Ninotchka Matute | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jazmín de la Vega win the 2027 Guatemala City mayoral election? · Jazmín de la Vega | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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