Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Who will Trump nominate as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? on Kalshi
If John Kiriakou is nominated by the President to be U.S. Ambassador to Greece after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress, the White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Nicole Malliotakis as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Nicole Malliotakis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 645 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate John Catsimatidis as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · John Catsimatidis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 474 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate John Kiriakou as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · John Kiriakou | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 351 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Debbie Matenopoulos as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Debbie Matenopoulos | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 285 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Michael Psaros as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Michael Psaros | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 229 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Josh Huck as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Josh Huck | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 229 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Dean Spanos as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Dean Spanos | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 229 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Geoffrey Pyatt as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Geoffrey Pyatt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 223 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Gus Bilirakis as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · Gus Bilirakis | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 128 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate John Georges as U.S. Ambassador to Greece? · John Georges | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 112 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.