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who will win grammy on Kalshi
If Through the Wall has won Best Dance/Electronic Album at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Recording Academy.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 320 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 75,502 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Love & Fear win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Love & Fear | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 38,320 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Banks of the Trinity win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Banks of the Trinity | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,270 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wild win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Wild | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,175 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dandelion win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Dandelion | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 15,442 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cloud 9 win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Cloud 9 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 13,733 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will I Just Might win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · I Just Might | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,515 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Feeling win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · The Feeling | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,987 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A Couple Minutes win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · A Couple Minutes | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,073 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Let Me win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Let Me | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,485 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best R&B Album at the Grammys? · Tie | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 5,330 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Progressive R&B Album at the Grammys? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5,262 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Rap Performance at the Grammys? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 4,349 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Out The Window win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Out The Window | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,679 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nightingale Lane win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Nightingale Lane | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 3,664 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will What You Need win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · What You Need | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,648 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best R&B Collaboration or Duo/Group Performance at the Grammys? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,570 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vacancy win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Vacancy | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,232 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will U win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · U | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 3,013 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,893 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,457 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nowhere Fast win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Nowhere Fast | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,150 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morning Dew (Donk) win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Morning Dew (Donk) | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,123 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pressha win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Pressha | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2,121 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Obvious win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Obvious | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2,115 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Risk It All win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Risk It All | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,986 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 9 months and 50 hours win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · 9 months and 50 hours | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,819 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beautiful People win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Beautiful People | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,609 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Still win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Still | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,590 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Confessions II win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · Confessions II | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,099 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Great Divide win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · The Great Divide | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,040 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dry Spell win Best Country Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Dry Spell | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 871 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Flow State win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Flow State | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 791 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SOMA win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · SOMA | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 784 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Through the Wall win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · Through the Wall | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 719 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Be by You win Best Country Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Be by You | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 660 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cerulean win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the Grammys? · Cerulean | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 653 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Middle of Nowhere win Best Contemporary Country Album at the Grammys? · Middle of Nowhere | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 553 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas win Best Country Solo Performance at the Grammys? · Choosin' Texas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 527 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Am I Okay?! win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? · Am I Okay?! | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 409 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 320 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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