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ChatGPT Release Date on Kalshi
If OpenAI releases a model called Astra 6.1 or greater to the public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: OpenAI.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13, 2026 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 207,086 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026? · Before Dec 31, 2026 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 131,100 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Mar 1, 2027? · Before March, 2027 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5,949 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jun 1, 2027? · Before June, 2027 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,380 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jan 1, 2028? · Before 2028 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 219 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Sep 1, 2027? · Before September, 2027 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 56 | Sep 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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