Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Government budget cuts on Kalshi
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FRED.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026? · At least 250 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 109,141 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 2000 before 2026? · At least 2 trillion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 45,774 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 500 before 2026? · At least 500 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 44,113 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 750 before 2026? · At least 750 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 37,998 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $250 billion before 2028? · At least 250 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 37,336 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 1000 before 2026? · At least 1 trillion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 33,392 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 50 before 2026? · At least 50 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 31,053 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $1000 billion before 2028? · At least 1 trillion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 16,524 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $500 billion before 2028? · At least 500 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 12,511 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $2000 billion before 2028? · At least 2 trillion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10,613 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $750 billion before 2028? · At least 750 billion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,069 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 1 before 2028? · At least $1 billion | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 4,238 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 50 before 2028? · At least 50 billion | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,149 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by $200 billion before 2028? · At least 200 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 768 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 100 before 2028? · At least 100 billion | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 546 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending decrease by 150 before 2028? · At least 150 billion | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 248 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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