What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which states will curb their next governor's powers? on Kalshi

If legislation that removes or restricts a power of the governor, or transfers it to another officer or body is enacted in Texas before Jan 11, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Iowa Legislature, Texas Legislature Online, Georgia General Assembly, Ohio General Assembly, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ohio enact a law curbing its next governor's powers before Jan 11, 2027? · Ohio	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	31	Jan 11, 04:59 UTC
Will Texas enact a law curbing its next governor's powers before Jan 11, 2027? · Texas	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Jan 11, 04:59 UTC
Will Iowa enact a law curbing its next governor's powers before Jan 11, 2027? · Iowa	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jan 11, 04:59 UTC
Will Georgia enact a law curbing its next governor's powers before Jan 11, 2027? · Georgia	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Jan 11, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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