Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Governor nominee? on Kalshi
If Tom Willis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 West Virginia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, New York Times, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 146 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Tom Willis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Governor in New Hampshire? · Scott Brown | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Governor in New Hampshire? · John E. Sununu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Jeffrey Kessler | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Montana? · Reilly Neill | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Governor in Mississippi? · Cindy Hyde-Smith | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Aly Richards | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen T. Williams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Stephen T. Williams | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shawn Fluharty be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Shawn Fluharty | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rachel Fetty Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Natalie Tennant be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Natalie Tennant | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Salango be the Democratic nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Ben Salango | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Mike Pieciak | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Molly Gray be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Molly Gray | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Charity Clark | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Becca Balint be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Becca Balint | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont? · Amanda Janoo | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jenny Wilson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Utah? · Jenny Wilson | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erin Mendenhall be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Utah? · Erin Mendenhall | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Utah? · Ben McAdams | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian King be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Utah? · Brian King | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruth Buffalo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in North Dakota? · Ruth Buffalo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Merrill Piepkorn be the Democratic nominee for Governor in North Dakota? · Merrill Piepkorn | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Boschee be the Democratic nominee for Governor in North Dakota? · Josh Boschee | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Heidi Heitkamp be the Democratic nominee for Governor in North Dakota? · Heidi Heitkamp | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carol Miller be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Carol Miller | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Moore Capito | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Missouri? · Wesley Bell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tishaura Jones be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Missouri? · Tishaura Jones | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quinton Lucas be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Missouri? · Quinton Lucas | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Kander be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Missouri? · Jason Kander | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Crystal Quade be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Missouri? · Crystal Quade | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mac Warner be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Mac Warner | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JB McCuskey be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · JB McCuskey | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Riley Moore be the Republican nominee for Governor in West Virginia? · Riley Moore | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom McDermott be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Indiana? · Tom McDermott | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jennifer McCormick be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Indiana? · Jennifer McCormick | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Hogsett be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Indiana? · Joe Hogsett | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J. D. Ford be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Indiana? · J. D. Ford | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Mrvan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Indiana? · Frank Mrvan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 146 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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