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Republican state legislative supermajorities on Kalshi
If the number of Wisconsin State Senate seats held by Republicans is at least 22 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Iowa Secretary of State, South Carolina State Election Commission, Georgia Secretary of State, Utah Lieutenant Governor's Office, Arizona Secretary of State, Texas Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State, Ohio Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, Wisconsin Elections Commission, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Missouri Secretary of State, Montana Secretary of State, Florida Division of Elections.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Utah State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Utah Senate | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,690 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ohio Senate | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,477 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Arizona House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Arizona House | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,297 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Montana Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Montana Senate | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,103 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Arizona State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Arizona Senate | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,924 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · South Carolina House | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,121 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Florida Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Florida Senate | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,988 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Missouri Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 23 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Missouri Senate | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,876 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Wisconsin State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 22 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Wisconsin Senate | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,788 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Ohio House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 60 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ohio House | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,759 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Missouri House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 109 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Missouri House | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,676 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Idaho Senate | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,751 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · North Carolina House | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,378 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Kansas House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 84 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Kansas House | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,169 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Georgia State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 38 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Georgia Senate | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,080 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · New Hampshire Senate | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 944 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Florida House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 80 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Florida House | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 880 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Iowa House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 67 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Iowa House | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 480 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of North Carolina Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 30 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · North Carolina Senate | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 377 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 21 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Texas Senate | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 338 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Iowa Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Iowa Senate | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 75 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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