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If Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Google Trends.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 43 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Erling Haaland | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 14,464 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Obsession be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Obsession | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 6,153 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · The Odyssey | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,173 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Inde Navarrette | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 4,743 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lionel Messi be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Lionel Messi | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,857 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Holland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Tom Holland | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,432 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stranger Things be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · Stranger Things | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,281 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Lamine Yamal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,995 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zendaya be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Zendaya | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,677 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Pitt be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · The Pitt | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,646 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Cristiano Ronaldo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,302 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will His & Hers be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · His & Hers | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,230 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,092 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shohei Ohtani be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Shohei Ohtani | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 792 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LeBron James be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · LeBron James | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 681 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacob Elordi be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Jacob Elordi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 589 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Timothée Chalamet | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 552 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Survivor be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · Survivor | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 506 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Michael | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 500 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Brunson be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Jalen Brunson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 423 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kylian Mbappé be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Kylian Mbappé | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 405 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Project Hail Mary | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 340 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Toy Story 5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 314 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Backrooms be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Backrooms | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 165 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Neymar Jr be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Neymar Jr | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Will Smith be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Will Smith | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 31 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lindsey Vonn be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · Lindsey Vonn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will OG Anunoby be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list? · OG Anunoby | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will One Battle After Another be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · One Battle After Another | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 8 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ryan Reynolds be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Ryan Reynolds | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bridgerton be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · Bridgerton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Millie Bobby Brown be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Millie Bobby Brown | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Landman & The Madison be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list? · Landman & The Madison | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sinners be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · Sinners | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Devil Wears Prada 2 be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list? · 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pedro Pascal be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Pedro Pascal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicolas Cage be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? · Nicolas Cage | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 43 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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