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Will golfer win a major by 2030? on Kalshi
If Xander Schauffele wins a golf major championship (including The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 171 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
19% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Penge win a golf major championship in 2027? · Marco Penge | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 150,000 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jackson Koivun win a golf major championship in 2027? · Jackson Koivun | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,030 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kurt Kitayama win a golf major championship in 2027? · Kurt Kitayama | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,000 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bud Cauley win a golf major championship in 2027? · Bud Cauley | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,000 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Kim win a golf major championship in 2027? · Tom Kim | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,091 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Spieth win a golf major championship in 2027? · Jordan Spieth | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,024 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blades Brown win a golf major championship in 2027? · Blades Brown | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 753 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win a golf major championship in 2027? · Scottie Scheffler | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 660 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Burns win a golf major championship in 2027? · Sam Burns | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 391 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Gotterup win a golf major championship in 2027? · Chris Gotterup | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 376 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tiger Woods win a golf major championship in 2027? · Tiger Woods | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 340 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Smalley win a golf major championship in 2027? · Alex Smalley | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 307 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bryson DeChambeau win a golf major championship in 2027? · Bryson DeChambeau | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 164 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xander Schauffele win a golf major championship in 2027? · Xander Schauffele | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 143 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wyndham Clark win a golf major championship in 2027? · Wyndham Clark | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 129 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cameron Young win a golf major championship in 2027? · Cameron Young | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 104 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra win a golf major championship in 2027? · Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 94 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ryan Gerard win a golf major championship in 2027? · Ryan Gerard | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 94 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brooks Koepka win a golf major championship in 2027? · Brooks Koepka | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 59 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rory McIlroy win a golf major championship in 2027? · Rory McIlroy | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 49 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Ludvig Aberg | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 35 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win a golf major championship in 2027? · Ludvig Aberg | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 33 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.J. Spaun win a golf major championship in 2027? · J.J. Spaun | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 31 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jake Knapp win a golf major championship in 2027? · Jake Knapp | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 31 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jackson Koivun win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Jackson Koivun | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 25 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Thomas win a golf major championship in 2027? · Justin Thomas | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 9 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Griffin win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Ben Griffin | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bud Cauley win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Bud Cauley | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Blades Brown win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Blades Brown | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Smalley win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Alex Smalley | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aldrich Potgieter win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Aldrich Potgieter | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Novak win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Andrew Novak | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 8 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Berger win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Daniel Berger | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miles Russell win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Miles Russell | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win a golf major championship in 2027? · Tommy Fleetwood | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sungjae Im win a golf major championship in 2027? · Sungjae Im | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Karl Vilips win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Karl Vilips | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Burns win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030? · Sam Burns | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rickie Fowler win a golf major championship in 2027? · Rickie Fowler | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Victor Perez win a golf major championship in 2027? · Victor Perez | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 171 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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