Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Gold Hourly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM EST is above 4149.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 92 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4089.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4089.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,370 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4081.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4081.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,029 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4097.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4097.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 995 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4113.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4113.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 851 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4099.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4099.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 778 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4095.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4095.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 744 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4111.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4111.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 709 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4077.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4077.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 698 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4083.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4083.99 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 595 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4091.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4091.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 533 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4093.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4093.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 485 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4087.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4087.99 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 465 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4085.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4085.99 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 459 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4109.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4109.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 424 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4103.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4103.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 290 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4107.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4107.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 266 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4101.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4101.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 261 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4079.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4079.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 247 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4115.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4115.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 63 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4075.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4075.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 38 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4105.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4105.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4073.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4073.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 32 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4059.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4059.99 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4071.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4071.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4067.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4067.99 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4149.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4149.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4149.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4149.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4147.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4147.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4145.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4145.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4147.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4147.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4145.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4145.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4143.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4143.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4141.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4141.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4143.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4143.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4141.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4141.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4139.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4139.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4139.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $4139.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4137.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4137.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4135.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4135.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4133.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $4133.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 11:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 92 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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