Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Gold Daily on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 4286 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4136 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4136 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 2,620 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4116 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4116 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 2,009 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4126 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4126 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,913 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4196 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4196 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,340 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4076 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4076 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 924 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4156 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4156 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 864 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4106 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4106 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 750 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4146 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4146 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 584 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4216 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4216 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 520 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3996 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3996 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 467 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4186 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4186 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 436 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4256 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4256 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 430 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4166 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4166 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 281 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4096 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4096 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 102 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4066 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4066 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 78 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4086 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4086 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 75 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4036 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4036 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 65 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4056 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4056 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 59 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4176 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4176 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 57 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4046 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4046 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 53 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4026 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4026 | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 52 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4276 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4276 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4206 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4206 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4286 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4286 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4266 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4266 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4246 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4246 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4236 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4236 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4226 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4226 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4016 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4016 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4006 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4006 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3986 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3986 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3976 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3976 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3966 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3966 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3956 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3956 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3946 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3946 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3936 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3936 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3926 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3926 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3916 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3916 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3906 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3906 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3896 USD/t.oz on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3896 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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