Markets › Kalshi › Elections
German presidential election on Kalshi
If Udo Di Fabio wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: German Bundestag.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election? · Ilse Aigner | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,883 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julia Klöckner win the 2027 German presidential election? · Julia Klöckner | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 694 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election? · Karin Prien | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 398 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Boris Rhein win the 2027 German presidential election? · Boris Rhein | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 210 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election? · Udo Di Fabio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 130 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election? · Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election? · Monika Grütters | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hape Kerkeling win the 2027 German presidential election? · Hape Kerkeling | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gabriele Krone-Schmalz win the 2027 German presidential election? · Gabriele Krone-Schmalz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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