Markets › Kalshi › Elections
* Next German federal election winner on Kalshi
If CDU/CSU wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag? · AfD | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 13,470 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will FDP win the next election to the German Bundestag? · FDP | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,791 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag? · The Left | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,639 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag? · Greens | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,788 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag? · SPD | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,780 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag? · BSW | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,795 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag? · CDU/CSU | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,240 | Mar 25, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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