Markets › Kalshi › Elections
2029 GDP growth × 2028 winner on Kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Party: Republican, GDP growth: 0.0% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Presidency, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 0.0% or below? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 0.0% or below | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 3.1% or above? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 3.1% or above | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 2.6% to 3.0%? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 2.6% to 3.0% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 2.1% to 2.5%? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 2.1% to 2.5% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 1.1% to 2.0%? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 1.1% to 2.0% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Republican win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 0.1% to 1.0%? · Party: Republican, GDP growth: 0.1% to 1.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 0.0% or below? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 0.0% or below | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 3.1% or above? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 3.1% or above | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 2.6% to 3.0%? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 2.6% to 3.0% | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 2.1% to 2.5%? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 2.1% to 2.5% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 1.1% to 2.0%? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 1.1% to 2.0% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win in 2028 AND 2029 GDP growth be 0.1% to 1.0%? · Party: Democratic, GDP growth: 0.1% to 1.0% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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