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Georgia: Bottoms vs. Ossoff margin on Kalshi
If Jon Ossoff's margin in the Georgia U.S. Senate election minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's margin in the Georgia governor election is between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Georgia Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin minus Jon Ossoff's Senate margin be at least 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Bottoms by 0+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 15,031 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 15 and 18 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 15-18 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 11,895 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 3-6 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 10,113 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 9-12 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,034 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 0-3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,836 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 12 and 15 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 12-15 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,375 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 6-9 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,938 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be at least 18 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ossoff by 18+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,697 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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