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First Solar KPI on Kalshi
If First Solar Inc. reports Above 4400 MW module volume sold in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 2400 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 2400 mw | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 10,580 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3800 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 3800 mw | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 6,791 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 4200 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 4200 mw | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 6,406 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3600 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 3600 mw | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 4,959 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 4000 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 4000 mw | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,400 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 4400 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 4400 mw | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,880 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3000 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 3000 mw | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,752 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 2800 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 2800 mw | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,641 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 2600 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 2600 mw | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 990 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3400 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 3400 mw | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 402 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3200 mw module volume sold in Q1 2027? · Above 3200 mw | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 402 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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