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How many candidates will be on the French presidential first-round ballot? on Kalshi
If the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is at least 16 by Apr 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Conseil constitutionnel.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 62¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.33 | 63.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election be at least 16 by Apr 17, 2027? · At least 16 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Apr 18, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election be at least 14 by Apr 17, 2027? · At least 14 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Apr 18, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election be at least 12 by Apr 17, 2027? · At least 12 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Apr 18, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election be at least 10 by Apr 17, 2027? · At least 10 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Apr 18, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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