Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Freddie Mac 30Y mortgage rate on Kalshi
If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2027 is above 9.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%? · Yes | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 45,461 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 6.00%? · Above 6.00% | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 3,513 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 6.25%? · Above 6.25% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 554 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.00%? · Above 8.00% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 200 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.50%? · Above 7.50% | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 158 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 6.50%? · Above 6.50% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 13 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.75%? · Above 7.75% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 9.00%? · Above 9.00% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 8.75%? · Above 8.75% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 8.50%? · Above 8.50% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 8.25%? · Above 8.25% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 8.00%? · Above 8.00% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 7.75%? · Above 7.75% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 7.50%? · Above 7.50% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 7.25%? · Above 7.25% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 7.00%? · Above 7.00% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2027 be above 6.75%? · Above 6.75% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 30, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 9.00%? · Above 9.00% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.75%? · Above 8.75% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.50%? · Above 8.50% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.25%? · Above 8.25% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%? · Above 7.25% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.00%? · Above 7.00% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%? · Above 6.75% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%? · Above 6.50% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%? · Above 6.25% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
| Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%? · Above 6.00% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 31, 16:55 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.