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Florida locally acquired dengue cases on Kalshi
If the total number of locally acquired dengue cases reported in Florida during 2026 is at least 750, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, World Health Organization.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026 · 500 or more | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,489 | Jan 24, 14:59 UTC |
| 1000 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026 · 1k or more | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,335 | Jan 24, 14:59 UTC |
| 750 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026 · 750 or more | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,101 | Jan 24, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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