What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 7¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.25.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 7% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 7%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil? on Kalshi

If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, BBC, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Brazil, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, official government sources of Brazil, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

14% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	28,970	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	6,276	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	150	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	132	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	8	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.