What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

What will be the first Super Bowl Song played during halfitme? on Kalshi

If the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show is the song ''Encore'' as performed by Jay-Z (i.e., its recognizable melody or lyrics sung), whether performed in full, in part, in a medley, or in a mashup, provided it is at least reasonably begun, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Variety, the New York Times, Shakira Official Website, NME, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, Entertainment Weekly, Rolling Stone, Apple Music, Fox, Bloomberg, NBC, FIFA, The Washington Post, Pitchfork, Reuters, Madonna Official Website, BBC, Netflix, The Guardian, AP, Sky News, Axios, Fox News, BTS Official Website, MSNBC, CNN, Billboard, CBS, ABC, Politico, Amazon, The Hollywood Reporter.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Empire State Of Mind be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Empire State Of Mind	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	29,766	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Public Service Announcement (interlude) be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Public Service Announcement (interlude)	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	28,470	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Izzo (H.O.V.A.) be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Izzo (H.O.V.A.)	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	12,452	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will 99 Problems be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · 99 Problems	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	11,491	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Big Pimpin' be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Big Pimpin'	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	9,868	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Run This Town be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Run This Town	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,566	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Numb / Encore be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Numb / Encore	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,282	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Dirt Off Your Shoulder be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Dirt Off Your Shoulder	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,037	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Otis be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Otis	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,489	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Nias In Paris be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Nias In Paris	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,205	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Encore be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Encore	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	3,083	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Holy Grail be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Holy Grail	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,817	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Clique be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Clique	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,719	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Umbrella be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Umbrella	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,614	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Crazy In Love be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Crazy In Love	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,609	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love) be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,116	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Suit & Tie be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Suit & Tie	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,660	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Girls, Girls, Girls be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Girls, Girls, Girls	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,630	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Song Cry be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Song Cry	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,307	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Why I Love You be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Why I Love You	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,257	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Drunk in Love be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Drunk in Love	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	611	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Lucifer be the first song performed by Jay-Z during the 2027 NFL Championship Halftime Show? · Lucifer	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	413	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.