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First bill of the 120th Congress becomes law on Kalshi
If a bill passed by the 120th Congress has become law after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress, the White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 66¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.19 | 67.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Jan 15, 2027? · Before Jan 15, 2027 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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