What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

will event happen on Kalshi

If Travis Scott's performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happens Before Nov 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Variety, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Travis Scotts performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · Travis Scott	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC
Will SoFaygos performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · SoFaygo	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC
Will Metro Boomins performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · Metro Boomin	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC
Will Kodak Blacks performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · Kodak Black	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC
Will Don Tolivers performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · Don Toliver	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC
Will CA7RIEL & Paco Amorosos performance at “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Festival,” scheduled to begin on November 21, 2026 happen before Nov 23, 2026? · CA7RIEL & Paco Amoroso	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 23, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.