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Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop revenue on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 75 index points, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc - Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 75 index points? · Above 75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 70 index points? · Above 70 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 65 index points? · Above 65 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 60 index points? · Above 60 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 55 index points? · Above 55 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 50 index points? · Above 50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fenty Beauty TikTok Shop growth for November 2026 be above 45 index points? · Above 45 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.