What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken in 2026? on Kalshi

If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Verge, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

10% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027? · Dot Plot Omitted	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	18,475	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting before Jan 1, 2027? · Presser Skipped	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	18,287	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president before Jan 1, 2027? · Reserve President Rejected	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	7,167	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures before Jan 1, 2027? · Trimmed Mean Emphasized	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,739	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Board of Governors removes a Federal Reserve Bank president from office before Jan 1, 2027? · Reserve President Removed	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	184	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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