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Who will be charged with a federal crime on Kalshi
If Corey Lewandowski has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bloomberg, ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, the U.S. Department of Justice, CBS, NBC, NPR, Reuters, Axios, BBC, The Washington Post, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, the Associated Press, the New York Times, Politico, Courthouse News Service.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 45 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Anthony Fauci | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 559,378 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Ilhan Omar | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 516,883 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Tim Walz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 288,741 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Barack Obama | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 157,170 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · John Brennan | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 81,491 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Jack Smith | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 81,335 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Bill Clinton | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 73,110 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Letitia James | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 72,572 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hillary Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Hillary Clinton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 71,689 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Adam Schiff | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 55,034 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lisa Cook be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Lisa Cook | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 34,839 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Joe Biden | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 33,406 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will George Soros be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · George Soros | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 30,940 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Alvin Bragg | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 30,250 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jerome Powell be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Jerome Powell | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 29,964 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Gavin Newsom | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 29,499 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pam Bondi be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Pam Bondi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 28,357 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hunter Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Hunter Biden | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 25,657 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will E. Jean Carroll be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · E. Jean Carroll | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 24,483 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Kimberly Guilfoyle | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 24,327 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Keith Ellison be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Keith Ellison | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 23,191 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cassidy Hutchinson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Cassidy Hutchinson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 22,892 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · James Clapper | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 22,393 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dan J. Sullivan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Dan J. Sullivan | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 22,065 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Mark Kelly | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 21,750 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jacob Frey be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Jacob Frey | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,316 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Tucker Carlson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 15,749 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Gustavo Petro | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15,702 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jennifer Siebel Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15,410 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fani Willis be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Fani Willis | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 14,369 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Liz Cheney be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Liz Cheney | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,471 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Peter Strzok | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 12,595 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Chris Krebs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,820 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Elissa Slotkin be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Elissa Slotkin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,585 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mark Milley be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Mark Milley | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 9,635 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Chris Christie be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Chris Christie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,154 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Christopher Wray | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8,067 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Reid Hoffman be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Reid Hoffman | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 7,025 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Corey Lewandowski be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Corey Lewandowski | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,880 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Kent be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Joe Kent | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,674 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 45 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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