Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Compass Pathways Drug Approval on Kalshi
If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Food and Drug Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
87%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 87¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $0.46 | 87.8% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 9,790 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? · Before July 2027 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 8,693 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 4,571 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? · Before October 2027 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,361 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? · Before 2028 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,110 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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