What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 30¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 32% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 30%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Filibuster change this year? on Kalshi

If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Senate, Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

30%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

61% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Filibuster weakened before 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	73,412	Jan 02, 15:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	4,557	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Jan 20, 2029 · Before Jan 20, 2029	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,762	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Jul 1, 2028 · Before Jul 1, 2028	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	708	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Jul 1, 2029 · Before Jul 1, 2029	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	195	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Oct 1, 2027 · Before Oct 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	175	Oct 01, 14:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Apr 1, 2027 · Before Apr 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	113	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Jul 1, 2027 · Before Jul 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	109	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Filibuster weakened before Jan 1, 2030 · Before Jan 1, 2030	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	65%	10	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.