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F1 Race on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen finishes in first in the main race originally scheduled for November 21, 2026 at the 2026 Las Vegas Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Race: George Russell wins · George Russell | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 5,277 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Lando Norris wins · Lando Norris | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 5,117 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Max Verstappen wins · Max Verstappen | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 4,802 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Andrea Kimi Antonelli wins · Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 3,669 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Charles Leclerc wins · Charles Leclerc | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,531 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Lewis Hamilton wins · Lewis Hamilton | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,486 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Sergio Perez wins · Sergio Perez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 977 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Oscar Piastri wins · Oscar Piastri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 350 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Isack Hadjar wins · Isack Hadjar | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 221 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Nico Hulkenberg wins · Nico Hulkenberg | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 58 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Alexander Albon wins · Alexander Albon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 54 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Lance Stroll wins · Lance Stroll | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 51 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Liam Lawson wins · Liam Lawson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 45 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Valtteri Bottas wins · Valtteri Bottas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 44 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Arvid Lindblad wins · Arvid Lindblad | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Fernando Alonso wins · Fernando Alonso | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Carlos Sainz Jr. wins · Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Franco Colapinto wins · Franco Colapinto | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Pierre Gasly wins · Pierre Gasly | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Gabriel Bortoleto wins · Gabriel Bortoleto | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Oliver Bearman wins · Oliver Bearman | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Ryo Hirakawa wins · Ryo Hirakawa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.