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F1 Next Team on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen's next team is the Williams F1 Team before Mar 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, <person>’s official verified social media accounts, ESPN, FIA, the New York Times, The Athletic.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Red Bull Racing | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 21,372 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Mercedes | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,061 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · McLaren | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,557 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Retires / No Team | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,227 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Aston Martin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,009 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Alpine | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,303 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Cadillac | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,116 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Audi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 807 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Haas F1 Team | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 311 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Ferrari | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 163 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Williams | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
| What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team? · Racing Bulls | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Mar 12, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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