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Ford KPI on Kalshi
If Ford Motor Company reports Above 450000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 550,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 550,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,001 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 480,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 480,000 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 444 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 490,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 490,000 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 88 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 470 thousand total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 470 thousand | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 13 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 460 thousand total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 460 thousand | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 7 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 450 thousand total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 450 thousand | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 600,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 600,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 590,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 590,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 580,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 580,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 570,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 570,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 560,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 560,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 540,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 540,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 530,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 530,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 520,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 520,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 510,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 510,000 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ford Motor Company report Above 500,000 total U.S. vehicle sales in Q1 2027? · Above 500,000 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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