What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 32¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.36.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 34% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 32%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

EU social media ban for children on Kalshi

If a social media ban for children has been enacted in the European Union after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the European Union Official Journal.

Market says (typical open contract)

32%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

65% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
33¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.34	34.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the EU enact a social media ban for children before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	2	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the EU enact a social media ban for children before Apr 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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