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EUR/USD after economic events on Kalshi
If the EUR/USD exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 1.1475 at Dec 10, 2026 at 9:30am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - EURUSD.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 168 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1475 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1475 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1450 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1450 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1425 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1425 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1400 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1375 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1375 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1350 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1350 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1325 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1325 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1300 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1275 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1275 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1250 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1250 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1225 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1225 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1200 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1175 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1175 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1150 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1125 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1125 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1100 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1075 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1075 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1050 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1050 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1025 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1025 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1000 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.1000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.0975 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.0975 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1475 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1475 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1450 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1450 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1425 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1425 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1400 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1375 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1375 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1350 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1350 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1325 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1325 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1300 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1275 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1275 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1250 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1250 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1225 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1225 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1200 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1175 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1175 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1150 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1125 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1125 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1100 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1075 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1075 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1050 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1050 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
| Will EUR/USD be above 1.1025 on Dec 1 at 7:00am ET? · Above 1.1025 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 01, 12:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 168 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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