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EURUSD weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the EURUSD opening candlestick is Above 1.137 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - EURUSD.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.121 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.121 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.111 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.111 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.137 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.137 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.135 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.135 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.133 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.133 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.131 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.131 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.129 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.129 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.127 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.127 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.125 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.125 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.123 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.123 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.119 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.119 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.117 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.117 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.115 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.115 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.113 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.113 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.109 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.109 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.107 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.107 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.105 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.105 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.103 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.103 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.101 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.101 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.099 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 1.099 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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