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EUR/USD daily range on Kalshi
If the open price of the Euro/Dollar for November 10, 2026 is above 1.13199 at 10 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ICE .
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.12200 and 1.12399 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.12200 to 1.12399 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 12 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.12000 and 1.12199 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.12000 to 1.12199 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 11 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be above 1.13199 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.13200 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be below 1.10600 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.10599 or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.13000 and 1.13199 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.13000 to 1.13199 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.12800 and 1.12999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.12800 to 1.12999 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.12600 and 1.12799 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.12600 to 1.12799 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.12400 and 1.12599 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.12400 to 1.12599 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.11800 and 1.11999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.11800 to 1.11999 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.11600 and 1.11799 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.11600 to 1.11799 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.11400 and 1.11599 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.11400 to 1.11599 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.11200 and 1.11399 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.11200 to 1.11399 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.11000 and 1.11199 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.11000 to 1.11199 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.10800 and 1.10999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.10800 to 1.10999 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.10600 and 1.10799 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 1.10600 to 1.10799 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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