Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Estonian parliamentary election winner on Kalshi
If the Social Democratic Party wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Estonian National Electoral Committee.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election? · Centre Party | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 532 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election? · Isamaa | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 348 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election? · Social Democrats | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 109 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election? · Reform Party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 25 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election? · EKRE | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.