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ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 92.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 81 ? · Above 81 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,495 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 92.5 ? · Above 92.5 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,937 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 70.5 ? · Above 70.5 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,110 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 60.5 ? · Above 60.5 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,556 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 43.5 ? · Above 43.5 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,454 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 171.5 ? · Above 171.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 124 ? · Above 124 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores app downloads for November 2026 be above 106.5 ? · Above 106.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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