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EPL H2H Finishing Position on Kalshi
If Manchester United finishes higher in the final league table than Leeds United in the 2026-27 EPL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City finish higher than Manchester United in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Manchester City finishes higher than Manchester United | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 670 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United finish higher than Manchester City in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Manchester United finishes higher than Manchester City | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 389 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Chelsea finish higher than Tottenham in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Chelsea finishes higher than Tottenham | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 311 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham finish higher than Chelsea in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Tottenham finishes higher than Chelsea | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 199 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United finish higher than Leeds United in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Manchester United finishes higher than Leeds United | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 94 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool finish higher than Manchester United in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Liverpool finishes higher than Manchester United | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 70 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal finish higher than Tottenham in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Arsenal finishes higher than Tottenham | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 58 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sunderland finish higher than Newcastle United in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Sunderland finishes higher than Newcastle United | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 37 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool finish higher than Everton in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Liverpool finishes higher than Everton | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 36 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United finish higher than Liverpool in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Manchester United finishes higher than Liverpool | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 15 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leeds United finish higher than Manchester United in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Leeds United finishes higher than Manchester United | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Everton finish higher than Liverpool in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Everton finishes higher than Liverpool | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Newcastle United finish higher than Sunderland in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Newcastle United finishes higher than Sunderland | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham finish higher than Arsenal in the 2026-27 EPL final table? · Tottenham finishes higher than Arsenal | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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