Markets › Kalshi › Politics
EO this week? on Kalshi
If the President signs above 4 executive orders during Nov 8, 2026 to Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Register.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 25, 2026 and Oct 31, 2026? · Above 0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,267 | Nov 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 7, 2026? · Above 1 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33,981 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 7, 2026? · Above 0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,499 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 7, 2026? · Above 4 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,380 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 25, 2026 and Oct 31, 2026? · Above 3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,954 | Nov 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 7, 2026? · Above 2 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,925 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 25, 2026 and Oct 31, 2026? · Above 1 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,081 | Nov 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 7, 2026? · Above 3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,707 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 25, 2026 and Oct 31, 2026? · Above 2 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,564 | Nov 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 25, 2026 and Oct 31, 2026? · Above 4 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,906 | Nov 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Nov 8, 2026 and Nov 14, 2026? · Above 4 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,097 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Nov 8, 2026 and Nov 14, 2026? · Above 1 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,819 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Nov 8, 2026 and Nov 14, 2026? · Above 2 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,439 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Nov 8, 2026 and Nov 14, 2026? · Above 3 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 801 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Nov 8, 2026 and Nov 14, 2026? · Above 0 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 588 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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