Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Employment Combo on Kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for November 2026: U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 200k or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U3 be 4.3% or above AND NFP growth be 200k or above for November 2026? · U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 200k or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.3% or above AND NFP growth be below 100k for November 2026? · U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: Below 100k | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.3% or above AND NFP growth be 100-199k for November 2026? · U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 100-199k | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 200k or above for November 2026? · U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 200k or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be below 100k for November 2026? · U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 100k | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100-199k for November 2026? · U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100-199k | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.1% AND NFP growth be 200k or above for November 2026? · U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 200k or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.1% AND NFP growth be below 100k for November 2026? · U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: Below 100k | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.1% AND NFP growth be 100-199k for November 2026? · U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 100-199k | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.0% or below AND NFP growth be 200k or above for November 2026? · U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 200k or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.0% or below AND NFP growth be below 100k for November 2026? · U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: Below 100k | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U3 be 4.0% or below AND NFP growth be 100-199k for November 2026? · U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 100-199k | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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