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EFL Promotion on Kalshi
If Wrexham is promoted from the EFL Championship during the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN, Sky Sports, CBS Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wolverhampton be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Wolverhampton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 12,307 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wrexham be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Wrexham | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 6,825 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Swansea be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Swansea | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,476 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will West Ham be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · West Ham | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,883 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will QPR be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · QPR | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,453 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will West Bromwich be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · West Bromwich | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,279 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Charlton be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Charlton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,139 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Middlesbrough be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Middlesbrough | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 794 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Norwich be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Norwich | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 770 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Southampton be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Southampton | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 752 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Millwall be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Millwall | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 721 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bristol City be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Bristol City | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 485 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Blackburn be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Blackburn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 408 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Birmingham be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Birmingham | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 256 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stoke be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Stoke | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 236 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Portsmouth be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Portsmouth | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 58 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Burnley be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Burnley | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 27 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sheffield United be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Sheffield United | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 24 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bolton be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Bolton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 18 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Lincoln be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Lincoln | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Watford be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Watford | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Preston be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Preston | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Derby be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Derby | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cardiff be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Cardiff | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 14, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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