Markets › Kalshi › Elections
City of Edinburgh Council election winner on Kalshi
If the Scottish National Party wins the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: City of Edinburgh Council.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Scottish National Party win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · SNP | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · Reform UK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Scottish Liberal Democrats win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · Lib Dems | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Scottish Labour Party win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · Labour | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Scottish Green Party win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · Green | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Scottish Conservatives win the 2027 City of Edinburgh Council election? · Conservatives | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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